CIS 5590.004. Artificial General Intelligence

Prediction and Explanation

1. Temporal Reasoning

• Temporal Logics
• Active Logic
• Reasoning with Time Intervals
• Time Series Analysis

2. Prediction

• Solomonoff induction
• Hierarchical Temporal Memory, "A Thousand Brains" (video)
• Free energy principle and active inference
• "Why next-token prediction is enough for AGI" (video)

3. Explanation

• Abduction provides explanations
• A scientific theory is an explanation, vs. myth and conspiracy theory
• Explainable AI (XAI) and its trouble

4. Causal Inference

• Causality
• Causal model

5. NAL-7 Representation and Inference

• Representations of temporal information: relative, quantitative, or conceptual
• Separating the logical and temporal aspects in IL
• Time projection and eternalization
• Temporal induction and composition with compound terms
• Causal notions: domain-specific, multi-strategy, and "current best"

Reading

• Non-Axiomatic Logic: A Model of Intelligent Reasoning, 2nd Edition, Chapter 11