CIS 5590.004. Artificial General Intelligence

Prediction and Explanation

1. Temporal Reasoning

• Temporal logic
• Active logic
• Time intervals
• Time series analysis
• New riddle of induction

2. Prediction

• Solomonoff induction
• Hierarchical Temporal Memory, "A Thousand Brains" (video)
• Free energy principle
• "Why next-token prediction is enough for AGI" (video)

3. Explanation

• Abduction provides explaination
• Scientific theory as explanation
• Explainable AI (XAI)
• Myth, conspiracy theory, and "hallucination" in explanation

4. Causal Inference

• Causality
• Causal model

5. NAL-7 Representation and Inference

• Representations of temporal information
• Temporal inference
• Domain-specific causal notions

Reading

• Non-Axiomatic Logic: A Model of Intelligent Reasoning, 2nd Edition, Chapter 11