CIS 5590.004. Artificial General Intelligence

Prediction and Explanation

1. Temporal Reasoning

Time series, Time intervals

"Glue" Paradox

2. Prediction, Explanation, and AI

• Solomonoff induction
• Hierarchical temporal memory
• Free energy principle
• Prediction Machines
• "Why next-token prediction is enough for AGI"

3. Causal Inference

Causal model

4. NAL-7 Inference Rules

• Representations of temporal information
• Temporal inference
• Domain-specific causal notion

Reading

• Non-Axiomatic Logic: A Model of Intelligent Reasoning, 2nd Edition, Chapter 11